What will happen in Rostov?

Writing in the columns of El País on the opening the 25th EU-Russia Summit in Rostov-on-Don, José Ignacio Torreblanca remarks that "only George W. Bush can claim to rival Russia's ability to create divisions in Europe." The divisions between Europe's 27 member states have allowed Russia to "divide and conquer" with a policy that furthers its interests "by rewarding, ignoring and in some cases pressuring" its European neighbours. Citing political analyst Gleb Palovsky, the Spanish daily notes that Europeans who were hoping that "in time, Russia would progressively adopt Western parameters, to the point where one day it would become a representative democracy with an open economy and policies aligned with those in the EU" have been largely disappointed.

Russia must modernise

It is a view that is also shared by shared by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, which argues that the modernisation of the Russian system expected by European states never materialised. Instead, "Russian leaders adopted a highly selective approach which is solely focused on the modernisation of the Russian economy," which for FAZ is a testament to the fact " that their goal is not to establish democracy but to maintain the current power structure."

According to Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, "Russia will need an influx of new technology if it is modernise its economy" — a requirement that the Polish daily believes will make greater cooperation with the EU indispensable. However, a shift towards pragmatism in the Kremlin, which has been marked by bilateral agreements with some of Russia's European neighbours, has not resulted in changes to Russia's strategic objectives, which the Polish newspaper warns will also "be served by better relations with the EU: notably with regard to the take over of European companies by Russian giants in the energy sector, in particular in the Baltic States."

A New West to compete with China

For another Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza, the "Partnership for Modernisation" that is scheduled to be signed in Rostov "will not work if the Union simply hands over technology to Russia, without demanding reforms in return." As one Polish diplomat remarks, "the Russians have succeeded in imposing an à la carte agenda: they want technology, but they have remained silent on other issues, like energy security or the establishment of civil society." The Warsaw daily reports that some observers believe that the Kremlin's need for immediate help from Europe could amount to an opportunity to present Russia with firmer negotiating terms.

However, the problem is that the desire for rapprochement exists on both sides: the Europeans are also hoping to obtain greater access to Russian markets, and its participation in a "New West" that could compete more effectively with China. "But the approach that seeks to achieve a minimal level of modernisation — and in so doing provides support for an political model that has not succeeded in implementing reforms — will not go anywhere," insists Katinka Barysh of the Centre for European Reform in the columns of the daily.

Polish-German-Russian triangle to play key role

Russia urgently needs EU assistance for the launch of its modernisation programme, argues argues Süddeutsche Zeitung. According to the German daily, "after years of instrumentalising the economy for political ends, the Kremlin has changed tack and is now adapting its policies to serve the needs of the economy. And this is positive news for Europe." In the columns of Le Monde, Bulgarian political analyst Ivan Krastev describes the bid to strengthen links with the EU as both "strategic and tactical." In his opinion, "Russia has understood that the current context of crisis has put paid to its dreams of becoming an economic power house. Instead, Moscow now has to contend with an increasing sense of marginalisation as a continent, a sentiment which also holds sway in Europe."

Krastev goes on to argue that Poland will form the keystone in any new bridges to be built between Moscow and Europe. The ice was broken by "Vladimir Putin's September 2009 visit to Gdansk for ceremonies to mark the anniversary of the outbreak of WWII. The accident in Smolensk on 10 April, and Russia's tactful response to the death of Polish president Lech Kaczynski, has since served to reinforce growing entente." In short, Krastev believes that "the Polish-German-Russian triangle will soon play a key role in the negotiation of a new European order."

But can EU coordinate its divisions?

In a similar vein, România liberă focuses on a shift towards better relations between Russia and Germany, which the Bucharest daily alleges has been prompted by the Greek crisis. The weakness in the EU highlighted by discord over the situation in Athens has led Berlin to distance itself from its traditional partner, Paris, and to focus on Russia which has the merits of being "Germany's main gas supplier" and an "excellent source for skilled labour." Talks on the possibility of a visa agreement that would make it easier for Russians to travel to Germany "could result in a significant turning point at the summit."

Even if it is solely confined to the realm of the economy, the EU could nonetheless "play an important role" in the modernisation of Russia, notes Torreblanca, but only if Europe's member states present a united front, and only if they accept the fact that Moscow has no interest in joining Europe, but simply aims to improve its standing as "a centre of power" in the international arena. With Catherine Ashton and Herman Van Rompuy on the front line of European diplomacy, the summit will be "an excellent opportunity" to gauge to what extent the EU "is able to coordinate its divisions."