Crisis scarier than Wilders

Citing the quote famously attributed to Bill Clinton — "It's the economy, stupid" — Trouw reports that ongoing "election campaigns in the Netherlands are mainly focused on the issues of jobs and spending cuts." Even though their country has the lowest rate of unemployment in Europe (4.1%), the Dutch are nonetheless concerned by the economic crisis. The first consequence of this state of affairs is a probable election victory for the liberal VVD, led by Mark Rutte, which polls predict will obtain 36 of the 150 seats in the national parliament on 9 June. "In periods of uncertainty, the electorate tends to be more conservative," explains De Volkskrant, and this phenomenon appears to hold sway "in spite of the fact that the crisis is perceived as resulting from excessive liberalism."

Immigration remains an important issue

The second consequence: the crisis has largely eclipsed debate on the subject of the social integration of immigrants — the main soapbox platform for the populist and Islam-baiting Wilders and his PVV party. "Over the last few weeks, voters appear to have developed a relative immunity to Wilders' rhetoric about the consequences of immigration. The far-right leader was hoping that a report on the costs of immigration from outside the EU (7.2 billion euros per year) would enable him to focus public attention on the issue, but the presentation of the report was largely upstaged by discussion of the issue of democracy within his party.

At the same time, the other political parties adroitly avoided being drawn into debate on the simplistic conclusions of the report, limiting their comments to the matter-of-fact observation that a similar estimate of the cost of caring for the handicapped or the elderly would also be equally unwelcome." However, Trouw notes that though it may have been been sidelined in the election campaign, immigration remains an important issue — a fact reflected by a shift in the programmes proposed by the "the VVD [liberals], the CDA [Christian democrats] and the PvdA [Labour], which now appear to be somewhat closer to the line advocated by the PVV."

Nonetheless as the newspaper reports, "major differences remain." The PVV retains the dubious distinction of being the only party to propose a policy which includes an end to welfare benefits for immigrants, the establishment of a maximum quota of 1,000 asylum seekers per year and a tax on Islamic veils. In spite of "Wilders' intransigent tone, which has undermined the rise to power of his party," the PVV will likely win 17 or 18 seats, which will effectively double its presence in parliament. And given that the VVD has not pledged to avoid a coalition with the PVV, Geert Wilders could still form part of the country's next government.

With the polls indicating that support for the PvdA, which was hoping to capitalise on the popularity of its new leader Job Cohen, who took over from Wouter Bos in March, is in decline, the Labour Party will probably be placed second with 29 seats. De Volkskrant notes that commentators have criticised the former mayor of Amsterdam - expected to rally voters and build a consensus for multicultural society - for his meek performance in a number of television debates, where he "was less than convincing" when confronted by Wilders.

Balkenende does not like to lose

Finally, you might be wondering what we can expect from the Christian Democratic Appeal party: the CDA has been badly affected by the collapse of the government last February, which has mainly been blamed on its leader and outgoing prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende. Polls predict that the CDA will be lucky to obtain 21 seats. At the same time, the party's poor performance has also been attributed to a divergence between its founding Christian-democratic ideology and its current right-wing programme to combat the economic crisis: As NRC Handelsblad explains, "the CDA has presented a VVD programme."

The Rotterdam-based daily goes on to argue that Balkenende "is more interested in reforming the law on severance conditions and shortening the period of entitlement for unemployment benefit than he is in highlighting his affinity with the Christian Union party," which has traditional defended the Christian democratic platform along with the CDA. As a result, "Balkenende has led voters to mistrust the social-Christian ideology of the CDA, which they now perceive to be a sauce used to enhance the appeal of a liberal main course, which is not to their taste." If the polls prove to be accurate, "Balkenende will step down" from the leadership of the CDA, concludesDe Volkskrant: "someone who has been prime minister for eight years will not be content to be deputy prime minister under Mark Rutte. Balkenende, who is in the habit of winning, does not like to lose."

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One country, two faces

"Two utterly contradictory images of the Netherlands circulate in the international press. One is the idea of a wild, unruly place where policemen smoke marijuana, gay men dance in the streets, and euthanasia can be arranged in an instant, a multicultural society that is so tolerant that even violent Islamic extremists are subsidized by the state," affirms Ian Buruma in the English version of Der Spiegel. This is in sharp contrast to another image, which the Dutch Orientalist and essayist explains has been created by "the sudden emergence of populist demagogues, such as Pim Fortuyn and Geert Wilders, who rant and rave about the "Islamization" of Europe," which has led some commentators to remark that the Netherlands is "a country of reactionaries and racists, leading the rest of Europe in a march towards a new dawn of fascism."

Although both of these images are exaggerated, "there is indeed something a little frenzied about the new populism, exemplified by Geert Wilders, just as there was something overexcited about the social changes in the 1960s: sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll as a reaction to centuries of dull Calvinism." In fact, Buruma argues that "the reality in Holland is not as bad as the harsh rhetoric of populists might suggest. Geert Wilders is popular, but not nearly as popular as the former social democratic mayor of Amsterdam, Job Cohen." An advocate of dialogue with the Muslim community, the Labour leader "personifies, in the eyes of his enemies, the liberal elitism and soft tolerance that people blame for everything, from street crime in immigrant neighbourhoods to violent Islamist extremism." As a result, it is not certain that his party "will manage to form a majority government, despite his high personal standing." And even if he does succeed, "the problems of terrorism, street crime, or economic anxiety, will not disappear. But Holland will have a better chance to restore a degree of sanity, and be a country that is neither wild, nor bigoted, but the calm bourgeois place it should be."