Rare are those who allow themselves to discuss the fact that the support offered by the West for decades to the dictatorships on the southern shores of the Mediterranean is a blotch on their history. The Arab uprisings of recent weeks have put to flight these attitudes, among other debasements. This does not mean, however, that the concerns motivating this Western policy were not and do not continue to be based on very real dangers. The dream of bringing democracy to the Arab world is an exciting one, but the path weaves among yawning chasms that some fear the dream will end up in (and others want it there).
The most obvious and widely discussed fear is that these changes will pave the road to power for Islamist groups hostile to Israel and to the West. However, several factors would appear to hold off that threat, at least in the short term. First is the nature of the events of these last weeks, which have been led by legions of young people aspiring to live in an open and tolerant society, and in which Islamism has not played a leading role. That does not stop some in Europe from raising the spectres of unstable transitions, terrorism, waves of immigration and drug-trafficking that can threaten economic stability and our energy supply.
Certain risks are there, but some experts are insisting there is no need to exaggerate them: the likelihood that they will become reality remains low. All the more reason to face the risks inherent in the bet on democracy with a little courage.
Some issues are more worrisome than others:
Terrorism
Over the past decade the states of north Africa have bred terrorist cells responsible for attacks in the coastal areas and a increasing number of kidnappings of Westerners in the Sahel. The Algerian Salafist groups have come together under the name Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. Till now, these organisations have been contained and have failed to sow terror in Europe. But the transition from authoritarian, secular, pro-Western regimes to more pluralistic systems – and probably less stable and less repressive ones – is today creating new unknowns.
"Until now, the Arab regimes have been both the evil and the remedy,” says Mathieu Guidère, academic and author of several investigations into Islamic terrorism. “The lack of freedom, the repression and the corruption did encourage Islamism, but at the same time the regimes were fighting this phenomenon effectively.” And now?
“I’m pessimistic for these peoples but optimistic for the struggle against terrorism. I think the military will channel these revolutionary explosions and ultimately stay in power, and this will guarantee that the fight against terrorism will carry on,” Mathieu Guidere concludes.
Immigration
Since the fall of Ben Ali, the desperate departure of thousands of Tunisiansin makeshift boats to Italy has raised fears of a mass exodus from Africa to Europe. But the most convincing interpretation is that the Tunisian emigrants are mostly regime loyalists fleeing for fear of reprisals, emphasises Philippe Fargues, director of the Migration Policy Centre at the European University Institute in Florence.
Looking beyond the Tunisian example, the hypothesis of prolonged chaos that would drive many to leave and simultaneously see police forces lose control over illegal emigration remains a greater cause for concern.
"The migration from north Africa is down to two factors,” Philippe Fargues comments. “First, an economic factor, linked to unemployment and inadequate pay. Then a political factor, related to the lack of freedoms. Aside from creating great instability, the fall of authoritarian regimes should not worsen the quality of civic life and therefore increase emigration."
From an economic perspective, transition to democracy is not synonymous with an economic upsurge. But there is no reason why the situation should deteriorate and emigration accordingly rise. "Moreover,” adds Philippe Fargues, “even if the police controls were to loosen up, we must remember that while clandestine departures are a highly publicised form of emigration, they are in reality a highly marginal one. Most emigrants leave their home country with a tourist visa."
Economy
Thirty percent of European oil and gas imports come from the countries of the Arab-Persian crescent. Prolonged chaos and violence there could entail severe supply problems. But "simple" instability may also have repercussions. The price of a barrel of Brent crude stood at around $91 in mid-December, before the revolts broke out. On 18 February, the trading session ended with a barrel at 103 dollars. Some fear restrictions on shipping through the Suez Canal, or the coming to power of regimes that would claim the right to renegotiate contracts or vary their portfolio of clients. These hypotheses, however, are also unrealistic.
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