Powerless to influence junta

Among the members of the international community, the European Union was the first to respond to the sentencing on Tuesday 11 August of Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to a further 18 months of house arrest. On the same date, a declaration published on behalf of the Swedish Presidency of the EU in Brussels, announced that "the European Union condemns the verdict against Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy and Nobel Peace Prize Laureate." The document also announced a reinforcement of economic sanctions against the junta, which Václav Havel describes in the columns of Lidové Noviny as "one of the worst totalitarian regimes in the world."

According to French business news website L'Expansion.com, "European sanctions against Myanmar, which were reinforced in 2007, already include an embargo on arms sales, a measure that bans citizens close to the regime from entering the EU, a freeze on the assets of a dozen of the junta's leaders, a reduction in the scope of diplomatic relations, and a ban on imports of wood, metals, minerals and precious and semi-precious stones." As Financial Times Deutschland points out, further measures may soon be added by Europe's 27 member states, who will shortly vote on a plan to freeze the assets of 1,200 Burmese businesses in Europe.

Lexpansion.com reports that French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner welcomed the declarations in Brussels but also called for further economic sanctions, which would include withholding visas from the leaders of the regime and a system to track imports of rubies and hardwood. To judge from the opinion voiced by Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the United Kingdom is prepared to take an even tougher line. Writing in a guest editorial in Spiegel Online, Brown calls for "determined action in the United Nations Security Council," to impose "a worldwide ban on the sale of arms to the regime."

Tough words, but what can Europe actually hope to achieve?

But these declarations are unlikely to have any real impact. As the The Independent points out, the EU does not appear to have enough economic clout to influence the regime. The daily's leading article goes on to advocate widening the scope of the campaign against the junta. "Western pressure ought to be applied on those Asian states that privately succour the junta. It is not France which sells the junta arms, but China. It is not in London that the generals have second homes, but in Thailand. And it will be the 10-country Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean), not the European Union, that ultimately pulls the plug on the regime."

Spiegel Online also takes the view that the low volume of trade between Europe and Myanmar and a reluctance to penalize the country's poor make it difficult for the EU to exert pressure on the Burmese regime. However, there is one field where European sanctions could make a difference, and that is in the energy sector — where France is present via Total. Lexpansion.com reports that in May, Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner publicly acknowledged that the French oil company constituted the "the only means of exerting serious economic pressure." However, the website of the business weekly also notes that "both French leaders [that is to say President Sarkozy and Foreign Minister Kouchner] avoid mentioning Total, which has been a major investor in Myanmar since 1992."

For the Financial Times Deutschland, Paris must be held responsible for much of the Union's inertia in dealing with the junta. The report in the daily highlights the fact that in 2007, when sanctions against the Burmese regime were reinforced "a ban on oil imports from Myanmar was on the agenda. But according to diplomatic sources, this sanction, which had support from some countries, met with resistance from the French. The French oil giant is still working in Myanmar. Notwithstanding, President Sarkozy's vehement condemnation of Suu Kyi's house arrest, the opinion in diplomatic circles is that no restrictions on oil imports will be imposed in the near future."