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The 30 June transition between the Spanish EU Presidency and the Belgian EU Presidency will mark a significant watershed. With Spain’s exit, the rotating presidency will not fall to a “major" member state of the “European core" for some time to come: not until the Italian Presidency scheduled for 2014. In the intervening four years, Belgium will be succeeded by Hungary, Poland, Denmark, Cyprus, Ireland, Lithuania and Greece. Whereas there is no denying these countries’ commitment to Europe, the likelihood is that they will not seek to bring about any major changes in European affairs.
On this basis, the Spanish Presidency will probably remembered as one that sought to impose an ambitious — some would say unrealistic — agenda, which was certainly not without incident. The economic crisis demonstrated that external events can disrupt a presidency programme to the point of dictating it, and it is on the management of these external events that Spain’s performance will now be judged. At the same time, the contrast with a less ambitious Belgian Presidency will be highlighted by a period of relative inactivity devoted to long and delicate negotiations on the formation of the new Belgian government.
Remarkably, a series of quiet-spoken presidencies may be exactly what the European Union needs: there is no doubt that smaller countries will be less willing to enter into competition with the new European institutions introduced by the Lisbon Treaty, and represented by the permanent EU Council President and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs. And this should be welcomed as a positive development because competition between institutions invariably results in confusion in Brussels which undermines Europe’s influence in international affairs. The outgoing Belgian prime minister, Yves Leterme, has already pledged that he will not seek to overshadow European Council President Herman Van Rompuy (his predecessor at the head of the Belgian government). It remains to be seen if other national leaders will adopt a similarly discreet approach when their countries take over the EU presidency. If they do perhaps we can finally look forward to the full benefits of the Lisbon Treaty which was so long in the making.
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