The comeback of the Right

A comeback for the right and a surge in support for the far-right: these are the main takeaways from the 23 February federal elections in Germany. The conservative CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, took first place with 28.6 percent of the vote (208 seats out of 630, a 4.4 percent increase from 2021). Alice Weidel's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD, far right) came second, with 20.8 percent, and 152 seats, twice as many as in the previous election. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD, centre left) continued its slide, obtaining just 16.4 percent (120 seats), a fall of almost 9.3 points.

The left-wing party Die Linke won 8.77 percent of the vote (64 seats), its second best electoral result since its foundation. The Greens, who were part of the outgoing coalition, won 11.61 percent of the vote (85 seats). The elections were also marked by a historic turnout of 82.5 percent, the highest since the country's reunification.

Although Merz made repeated appeals to the far right in the run-up to the election, he is refusing to enter into a coalition with the AfD for the time being. The SPD would be the most obvious partner. CDU/CSU and SPD combined would secure an absolute majority, though even that may not be enough. If Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW, 4.97 percent) manages to pass the five percent threshold after a recount requested by the party leader, the party would be able to take just enough seats to weaken the CDU/CSU and SPD "Grand Coalition", and create the need for a third coalition partner, which would significantly destabilise the new government. Feels like Déjà vu.