Romania resists far right wave, becomes pro-EU stronghold

“The night Romania shocked the world.” That’s how Sebastian Pricop of Romanian outlet HotNews described the hard-fought victory of independent pro-EU candidate Nicușor Dan in the Romanian presidential elections held on 18 May. “Mordor lost. The hobbit won,” actor and singer Tudor Chirila announced the outcome, as reported by Romanian news site Spotmedia. The mayor of Bucharest, who is now president, successfully overcame a deficit of two million votes to prevent Romania from turning its back on the European Union.

The country awoke to the news that Dan Barna, a mathematician who holds a PhD in mathematics from the Sorbonne, had won 53.6% of the votes (almost 6.17 million), which is 830,000 more votes than the far-right George Simion’s 46.4% (over 5.3 million votes), as confirmed by the Romanian electoral authority.

The key factors behind Nicușor Dan’s win

Following the presidential elections, Romania became “a Western stronghold and an island of liberal-democratic values in a sea of geopolitical uncertainty”, according to Iulian Comănescu of the Romanian anti-disinformation project Veridica. But how did Nicușor Dan achieve the seemingly impossible by surpassing Simion?

Firstly, the turnout was one of the highest in decades. During their live reporting on the elections, George Sîrbu and Otilia Cristea of HotNews noted that this second round of presidential elections had roughly 11% more Romanians casting their votes than in the first round on 4 May. Over 11.5 million Romanians voted — almost 65% of those eligible. Maria Dinu of the Romanian newspaper Adevărul explained that one of the reasons behind this impressive turnout was the stakes involved: European values versus right-wing sovereigntism.

Moving on, one of George Simion’s mistakes during his presidential campaign was his grotesque and aggressive display of populism. “Common sense has protected normality from those who bizarrely and/or aggressively claim to speak for the Romanian people, or even God,” noted Romanian Minister of Education Daniel David, as quoted by Cornelia Mazilu of Adevărul. The populist speech only worked in Western Europe among the Romanian diaspora, where most Romanians living abroad reside. 

Yet Nicușor Dan won almost everywhere else. A notable factor was the phenomenal turnout of Moldovan voters: over 100,000 Romanians from Moldova participated, with an overwhelming majority (88%) choosing Dan. “If Romania were to fall under Russian influence, it would be a death sentence for all the hopes of Romanians across the Prut (editor’s note: the river between Romania and Moldova), who would have to deal not only with their own insecurities, but also with those of national minorities who vote in bloc with the Russians,” underlined PressOne’s editorial director, Adrian Mihălțianu. 

Also, Simion failed to win over the highly educated. Maria Zărnescu of Romanian daily Libertatea presented exit poll stats showing that Simion won by a large margin among Romanians from rural areas without a high school diploma. Conversely, he was penalised by citizens with higher education from urban areas. Nicușor Dan also had more success among women and the substantial Hungarian minority living in Romania. This is because Simion’s far-right policies are more restrictive regarding abortion and women’s roles in society and neglect minorities’ rights.

Backed by Europe, contested by Russia 

Leaders across Europe have reacted to Nicușor Dan’s victory, but Russia has also interfered. For example, on election day, Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, sparked controversy by claiming that a Western European government (suggested to be France by the use of a baguette emoji) had asked him to silence conservative Romanian voices before the vote. He said that he had “flatly refused” to restrict Romanian channels. According to Sudip Kar-Gupta, Juliette Jabkhiro and Luiza Ilie of Reuters, Durov clarified who had asked him to censor those voices: Nicholas Lerner, the head of France’s foreign intelligence agency. Romania’s new president described Durov’s comments as “a clear attempt to influence the outcome of the Romanian presidential election”. Similarly, France’s foreign ministry denied any interference, warning of “unfounded allegations” circulating online.

The Kremlin was displeased with the results. As reported by Cristina Sava of the Romanian news platform Digi24, Moscow’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov labelled the Romanian elections “at least strange”, continuing to complain that Călin Georgescu’s candidacy had been disallowed. Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, deflected accusations of interference in the Romanian elections, hinting that Russia might not recognise the outcome. “Please don’t call these elections,” she wrote on Telegram, as quoted by the Romanian news agency Agerpres.

In contrast to the Russian negativity, Dan’s victory was met with congratulations and praise from European leaders and beyond. Having received kind words from leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Nicușor Dan appears ready to collaborate in the interest of pro-EU unity.

What’s next for Romania

Although almost half of Romanians who voted were disappointed by Simion’s loss, Dan’s win came with good signs. Bucharest’s stock exchange opened “in the green”, as confirmed by HotNews's Claudiu Pirvoiu. Alexandra Coșlea, also from HotNews, reported that Tristan Tate, an entrepreneur accused of tax evasion, had announced his intention to leave Romania because Nicușor Dan had won. However, the most important thing now is what happens next, since Dan faces a daunting agenda. As president, he must now navigate Romania’s fragmented politics and society in order to form a government focused on reforms.

Dan announced that he would immediately begin consultations with all pro-European parties, while also pushing for the current interim president, the liberal Ilie Bolojan, to become prime minister, as pointed out by HotNews’s Rebecca Popescu. Dan has repeatedly stressed that Romania needs a government “with the courage to carry out reforms”. Rebecca outlined several scenarios. One is an expansive four-party coalition that would include the ruling National Liberal Party (PNL) and Democratic Union of Romania’s Hungarians (UDMR, centre-right), plus the Save Romania Union (USR, centre-right) and the the Social Democratic Party (PSD, centre-left) with 301 seats (well above the 233-seat majority threshold). Another is a minority liberal government comprising the PNL, USR and UDMR, which would rely on the PSD’s outside support to pass legislation.

According to HotNews’ finance editor Dan Popa, Romania’s greatest problems right now are the huge fiscal deficit, the stagnating economy, the need for fiscal reform, and the imminent presentation of a credible and reasonable plan of measures to the European Commission. Conversely, Afrodia Cicovschi of Adevărul reports that a consultancy firm has identified the pension system and the labour market as top priorities. The analysis also mentions administrative reform and much more besides.

For now, Nicușor Dan’s victory night remains a symbol of hope. However, the next chapter will test whether Romania’s “hobbit” can meet the high expectations set for him: building bridges at home, deepening ties abroad and steering the country towards a stronger Europe. Dan needs to act quickly, as Cătălin Tolontan argues in a HotNews editorial, because there is no time for a honeymoon period.