Is Donald Russia’s trump card in Europe?

Two weeks after Moldova’s EU referendum passed with a narrow margin (50.35%), the pro-European presidential candidate Maia Sandu beat (55.35%) her Russophile opponent Alexandr Stoianoglo, and Donald Trump won the race to the White House. In the hours following these events, I stopped over a meme suggesting that Russia had let go of the small fish to catch the big fish. Did Russia take its foot off of the gas in Moldova? Is Trump a big fish Southeast Europe should worry about and a trophy catch for Moscow?

Moldova’s European will edged Russia’s influence

Passing the EU referendum and winning the presidential elections was not a piece of cake for the pro-European Moldovans. In fact, if it weren’t for the diaspora vote, Moldova would have turned its face toward the Kremlin. Knowing that he had also won elections with the help of the diaspora, two-time Romanian president Traian Băsescu (2004-2014) reminded his past presidential opponents that he’s not the only one who prevailed this way: “Vladimir Putin, with his hordes of oligarchs and jukeboxes, also entered the select club of those beaten with the vote of the diaspora carrying a Romanian passport.

At least Putin had the dignity not to say that Maia Sandu stole the elections,” Băsescu wrote on Facebook as quoted by Florentina Grigore from the Romanian newspaper Adevărul. All in all, Russian influence agents did not look like they eased their efforts. If anything, it was an exacerbation. 

"This vote took place under unprecedented interference and intimidation by Russia and its proxies, aiming to destabilise the democratic processes in the Republic of Moldova," said Peter Stano, the EU spokesperson, as reported in Reuters by Charlotte van Campenhout, Lili Bayer and Philip Blenkinsop. As further proof, Natalia Zaharescu from Moldovan investigative newspaper Ziarul de Gardă used a codename to infiltrate undercover in Russian oligarch Ilan Șor’s network, whose mission was to persuade citizens to vote against the EU accession and back Maia Sandu’s opposition in the presidential elections. ZdG’s textbook investigation shows Natalia receiving money and instructions on what and who to vote for at the referendum and the presidential elections. 

The good, the bad, and the ugly of Donald Trump’s White House victory

After Donald Trump had won the US elections, I took the pulse of an American coworker. “I legitimately don’t want to talk about it,” he sighed with a bitter smile that had disappointment written all over. Similarly, Bulgarian MEP Radan Kanev (centre-right; European People’s Party) described Trump’s victory as “bad news for Europe and EU-US relations.” Being quoted by Bulgarian news platform Mediapool, Kanev thinks Europe and Bulgaria need to act fast to consolidate NATO's defence in the region, rethink the climate policy and strengthen trade and industrial policies. Looking back, not being quick enough is one of the reasons why Europe has been fragile in the dance with Russia.

Besides agreeing that Trump poses a threat to NATO cohesion, the English language editor of the journalistic platform Kosovo 2.0, Nicholas Kulawiak, fears that the Republican president will “seek to resolve Kosovo-Serbia normalisation in one fell swoop that could undermine Kosovo’s sovereignty and cut back foreign aid.” As Romanian political scientist Marius Ghincea told Luiza Popovici of Romanian news platform PressOne, Trump’s victory “will normalise what was previously marginal, extremist and socially and politically unacceptable.” For example, Ghincea thinks that forcing Ukraine to accept “significant concessions” for a temporary peace will destabilise the security of Eastern Europe. Also, since Trump “had a very critical position towards the European Union” during his first mandate, Ghincea thinks the EU-US relations will degrade and Romania, at the very least, may have to choose between security and development. 

The cost of Trump’s peace

With extremism starting to blend into normality, PressOne’s journalist Răzvan Filip argues that Trump’s win is a positive signal sent to far-right parties across the world. According to Filip, one of the reasons behind Donald’s triumph is that “as a voter, you are no longer looking for political programs that will improve your life in a noticeable way. You settle for the first charlatan who is willing to listen to your complaints and stroke your ego.” 

This inability to distinguish between important and insignificant fits into how Romanian writer and historian Andrei Cornea described Western decadence in the cultural magazine Dilema Veche. “But there will be, they say, peace. Yes, peace dictated by Putin. But lives will be saved. Yes, lives of sclaves. Isn't that what decadence is all about, forgetting that the fight for freedom is expensive?” the historian writes. “Is heroism nothing more than believing that there are values ​​that should be simply preferred to life? But which politician from the West, after telling his people that such sacrifices are necessary, will be elected or re-elected? Do you know any? And do you know such a people?” 

Populist Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić drew a similar parallel between peace and sacrifice before the US elections. “This is not for sure but it might happen that this election brings about peace or the continuation of a war which may result in a third world war," Vucic said on Serbian TV Happy, as quoted by Russian press agency TASS. A month before, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin painted intergovernmental organisation BRICS as a viable alternative to the European Union. “I am convinced that there is no place for Serbia in the European Union, at least as far as the EU has not made significant efforts to accept us as a full member,” Vulin said during an interview with the Russian magazine National Defence, as reported by Bulgarian news agency Novinite.

On the bright side, PressOne’s editorial director Adrian Mihălțianu thinks that the countries in Central and Eastern Europe may benefit from extra attention from the United States because they serve as a buffer zone against Russia. Also, Sean Monaghan, visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, reminded us of two things in an article written by Kostas Koukoumakas, Katerina Voutsina, and George Schinas for Greek media incubator iMEdD Lab: “no one can say for certain whether Trump would implement any of these measures” and that “his policies ultimately strengthened America’s deterrence in Europe.”