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One had long been predicted. The second, on the other side of the Channel, was unexpected. In the space of a few days, two of Europe's major democracies saw left-wing victories at the ballot box.
In the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer's Labour Party returned to power with a massive majority in the House of Commons (411 seats out of 650) after 14 years in opposition. In France, following the second round of legislative elections, the New Popular Front (NFP), which includes Jean-Luc Mélenchon's La France Insoumise, the Socialists, the Greens and the Communist Party, emerged as the largest group in the new National Assembly with 182 seats (out of 577).
On paper, these results appear to be good news for the European Union. Keir Starmer, who voted to remain in the EU in 2016, immediately indicated that he will seek dialogue with Brussels to ease relations after Brexit.
He also put an end to the "Rwanda plan" for the expulsion of asylum seekers, which had served as an inspiration for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is now working to open reception and detention centres in Albania. The EU now appears to be on the verge of endorsing this model as a way to manage migration.
As for France, the success of the NFP follows the Republican Front which, thanks to strategic candidate withdrawals by centrists, the right and the left in the second round of voting, prevented the far right of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella from gaining a majority (just 143 seats, despite a score of 33 percent in the first round). The Rassemblement National's programme, which included the primacy of national law over European law, and questioning France's contribution to the European budget, would have run the risk of a quiet “Frexit”. There were also serious concerns about the weakening of French and European support for Ukraine.
The fact remains that the victory of the left in London and Paris is not likely to give the European project any real boost. Although a clear majority of Britons now consider Brexit to have been a failure, the new occupant of Downing Street does not appear ready to suggest a return to the EU family. Nor does Starmer envisage participation in the single market or the customs union, which would mean respecting the EU's trade policies.
As for the NFP, its political programme proposes substantial public spending and an increase in social benefits (especially with the return of the retirement age to 60), which would, at least initially, have a detrimental effect on public finances.
In mid-June, the European Commission already warned Paris of disciplinary measures for budget deficits in excess of EU limits. The NFP has made no secret of its intention to break the rules of the European Stability and Growth Pact.
However, the most worrying aspect of this post-election state of affairs is that, over and above whatever short- and medium-term relations that the winning parties may have with Brussels, it constitutes an optical illusion for the European left.
It delays the urgent realisation of the need to strengthen European unity, and take the leap towards greater federalism.
In the United Kingdom, the figures are clear: the Labour Party won the elections, but with only 34 percent of the vote. Labour’s victory was above all due to the massive rejection of the Conservatives, and the fruits of their 14 years of government.
The New Popular Front has only achieved a very relative majority (representing less than a third of French voters), which was only obtained thanks to the repellent effect of the extreme right.
In short, the left wins elections when its opponent is discredited, or when the electorate is frightened off by extremist positions. These are victories by default, rather than the result of popular support.
At no point has the left questioned the underlying reasons for the advance of the populists and far right (in the United Kingdom, Nigel Farage's Reform party obtained 14 percent), namely the demand for public power and the ability of governments to defend the values and interests of citizens. This is all the more obvious in countries like the UK and France, which have historically had an influence on the world stage.
Yet many on the European left continue to harbour the illusion that it is still possible to pursue effective policies at the national level, when massive investment and wealth taxation plans (most major companies are involved in tax optimisation) can today only be envisaged at the European level.
The question of taxation should be all the more important for the left, since it is a condition for the defence of the welfare state. Without taxation of wealth, it is impossible to pursue a policy of social redistribution, defence of public services, and the fight against inequality. This is the raison d'être of the left, and it is conditional on the creation of a political and federal Europe. Unless, as in France and the United Kingdom, we want to settle for temporary victories by default.
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