The Pole dances

A razor-thin victory: that's the best way to describe the result for Karol Nawrocki (an independent backed by the far-right Law and Justice party, PiS) in the second round of the Polish presidential election held on 1 June. With 50.89% of the vote, he barely edged out his opponent Rafał Trzaskowski (PO, center-right, 49.11%).

Turnout was 71.63% – higher than in the first round (67.31%) but lower than in the 2023 legislative elections, when PiS lost power to the coalition led by Donald Tusk (over 74%).

The miniscule margin reveals the polarisation of Polish society. While the population is divided on issues such as the war in Ukraine, relations with the European Union and NATO, the inability of Tusk's pro-European government to fulfill certain electoral promises played into Trzaskowski's hands. The arrival of a new conservative president could further complicate the work of the already heavily criticised liberal executive.