Operation Spider’s Web shows Ukraine has not yet lost the (defensive) war

On 1 June, Ukrainian drones attacked several Russian airfields that serve as bases for fighter aircraft and so-called strategic aviation – i.e., planes that carry Russia's most deadly missiles, potentially including nuclear warheads. It is these aircraft that have led the vicious bombing of Ukrainian cities.

Ukraine's security services later admitted to having prepared the operation for a year and a half. The initial estimate was that up to 40 Russian aircraft had been damaged, which would represent up to a third of Russia's strategic forces. For several days, independent experts and open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts have been trying to verify this number. The latest reliable figure is twelve, which is less than 40 but still a lot: the aircraft in question were worth hundreds of millions of dollars and were destroyed by first-person-view (FPV) drones that cost $500. 

According to one widely-circulated report, shared by the Kyiv Independent, two reconnaissance aircraft were permanently damaged by Operation Spider's Web. If true, that would meaningfully affect Russia's ability to conduct air strikes.

More importantly, the Russian aviation and defence industry is unable to rebuild any of these aircraft. Not just in the near future, but ever. Russia does not have allies close and loyal enough to be willing to transfer such sophisticated technology to it. And anyway, who would want to lend expensive military hardware to a country that – bombast and sabre-rattling notwithstanding – is unable to protect it?

The blow dealt to Russia by Operation Spider's Web is measured not only by the number of destroyed aircraft but also by the humiliation of the FSB and Russia’s counterintelligence. The Ukrainians managed to infiltrate drone-filled lorries thousands of kilometres inside Russian territory. The most effective parts of the operation happened in Siberia (at the Belaya base in Irkutsk region) and in the far north (at the Olenya base near Murmansk). Kyiv's gambit was also a masterstroke of psychological warfare that will generate paranoia: from now on, every lorry in Russia is cause for suspicion and fear.

---

The blow dealt to Russia by Operation Spider’s Web is measured not only by the number of destroyed aircraft but also by the humiliation of the FSB and Russia’s counterintelligence

---

Pundits quoted by Ukrainian online media New Voice emphasize the important symbolic dimension of Operation Spider's Web. Ukraine has shown that in its defensive war against Russia, it retains its independence, its capacity for tactical planning, and its ability to conduct complex and effective operations, even on enemy territory. 

Spider's Web boosted the morale of both the Ukrainian army and public. It served to show that Ukraine is not losing the war and that Russia may not be as all-powerful and inexhaustible as it likes to portray itself. Such Russian bravado was on show just recently at the so-called peace talks in Istanbul. Vladimir Medinsky, a Kremlin representative, talked up Moscow's readiness for a long war by recalling that Russia fought Sweden for 21 years, Natalia Glukhova notes in Novaya Gazeta Europe.

Despite the lack of notable progress in Istanbul, besides an agreement on a new prisoner exchange and the repatriation of the bodies of 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in action, a poll conducted by the independent Levada Centre at the end of May shows that Russian citizens seem to be more supportive of peace talks and an end to the war. Some 64% (+6% compared to March) favoured peace talks, while the proportion of people supporting the continuation of the war decreased from 34% in March to 28% in May. Support for peaceful negotiations is higher among women (73%) and people under 24 (77%). “Only 3% of Russians believe Russia is an obstacle to peace.

At the same time, 14% of respondents believe that the U.S. is to blame, while 36% each see Ukraine and European countries as major obstacles in peace negotiations”, Kateryna Hodunova notes in the Kyiv Independent.

Russian public opinion’s widely shared desire for peace is confirmed in a series of interviews of people with different backgrounds and views, including opponents to the regime, the news outlet conducted in Russia, but, it says, Russians “are no supporters of Ukraine and its sovereignty”. As Oleg Sukhov reports, “despite speaking on condition of anonymity and with the ability to freely express their views, Russians inside the country spoke along the official Russian lines — accusing Ukraine of stalling the negotiations or even arguing that there will be no peace as long as Ukraine remains an independent country.”