Will it happen or will it not? Since early spring, observers have been closely watching for the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Although Kyiv refuses to give a date, recent developments suggest that it could begin very soon, or even that it has already begun.
For the last several months, bombardments, drone attacks and pro-Ukrainian incursions on Russian territory have caused growing concern in Moscow, suggesting that the dynamics of the war may be changing. On 5 June, Russia announced that it had foiled a Ukrainian attack in the occupied region of Donetsk - killing 250 soldiers in the process - before being contradicted by Ukraine. In this game of deception where the successes of one side is immediately denied by the other, it is difficult to know whether the counter-offensive will indeed take place, and if so, to what extent the general public will be informed.
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