French finance minister Michel Sapin sent his government’s 2015 draft budget to the European Commission on 15 October. To the dismay of other Eurogroup members (except maybe Italy), France will not be respecting the EU’s main budgetary targets: its deficit will be around 4.3 per cent of GDP (far more than the 3.0 per cent ceiling set by the EU), its debt is equal to 95.1 per cent of the GDP (the EU target is 60 per cent), and the efforts to reduce its budget deficit fall short.

The European Commission is likely to reject the draft in the two coming weeks. It would be the first time the Commission doesn’t approve a national budget under new prerogatives that EU countries granted it in 2013. If France refuses to make adjustments, the EU could fine it up to €4bn. Prime Minister Manuel Valls already has said his government will stick to the proposed 2015 budget, regardless of the Commission’s judgement.

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