The Netherlands in a tight spot

Two parties tied for first place, but only one winner: this is how the snap parliamentary elections of 26 October in the Netherlands have concluded. According to preliminary results, Rob Jetten's centrist D66 party leads with 26 out of 150 seats in the House of Representatives, tied with the Party for Freedom (PVV, far right), which has cratered, losing eleven seats. They are followed by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD, centre-right, 22 seats), the Green Left-Labour Party (GL/PvdA, left, 20 seats) and the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA, centre-right, 18 seats).

Once the final results are known and the House of Representatives has been formed, it will be up to D66 to quickly assemble a parliamentary majority in a fragmented political landscape. The stated intention is to exclude the PVV and its leader Geert Wilders, who remains one of the country's main political players despite his poor performance. For some observers, Jetten's hard-fought victory marks a return to a certain “normality” in politics, defined by liberal and secular progressivism in the face of right-wing populism.

The vote was brought forward after the PVV withdrew from the VVD-led coalition government in June, less than a year after taking office. Wilders, who caused an upset by winning the snap elections in November 2023 by a large margin, considered the steps taken to tighten migration and asylum regulations – his key campaign issue – to be insufficient.