The euro is a high-speed train

Published on 16 September 2011 at 11:13

Since the Greek crisis has taken on an air of tragedy and a default by Athens no longer seems impossible, the chorus of voices calling for Greece to exit the eurozone - however temporarily - is growing. "Greece merely has to leave Euroland, print and devalue its 'New drachma', pay its debt, and everything will get back to normal”: German politicians and British analysts vie with each other in imaginary scenarios and formulas to show the way to the stage exit - a painful departure, but one that's necessary and urgent if the remainder of the play - Europe itself - is to go on.

If it were only that simple. It must first be remembered that the departure of a country from the single currency was simply not foreseen in the European treaties. These should be reviewed, and that would take years - with no guarantee of any unanimity among the member countries, including those facing expulsion. It is hard to imagine Athens - or Rome, Madrid, Dublin or Lisbon for that matter - voting for such political and financial suicide. Not to mention, as the Wall Street Journal recalled this week, that the European banks holding Greek debts in euros would suffer heavy losses; or that the Greeks would have an incentive to invest their savings elsewhere (as the Argentines did at the end of the dollar-peso parity in 2002) and that investors willing to bet on the stability of the new currency would be scarce. To this we should finally add the cost of printing the "New drachma", since, like all other currencies replaced by the euro, the former currency was destroyed soon afterwards.

In short, expelling Greece from the eurozone is not imminent and the solution of the debt crisis will move on to other options. The euro is not a bus where a passenger who falls ill or becomes abusive is kicked off at the next stop, but rather a high-speed train: if something goes wrong on board or it has to stop in open country, and the passengers are prohibited from leaving, it must be allowed to arrive at its destination before the problem can be resolved. Proponents of formulas as seductive as they are deceptive would be better to have that in mind and stop scaring themselves - or pleasing themselves - with their wishful thinking.

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