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Will Europe be drawn into a conflict in the Middle East? On 28 February, the United States and Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran. So far, this has resulted in significant human and material losses, the decapitation of Iran's military leadership and, most notably, the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. While an American deployment on Iranian soil is currently out of the question, this undeclared war has profoundly altered the balance of power in the region, in just one weekend.
In countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, military bases where US forces operate were targeted as part of the Iranian response. Lebanese Hezbollah also joined the conflict, striking Israel on March 2 before facing retaliation from the Jewish state.
In a context of rapid military escalation, the European Union is struggling to find its place and speak with a unified voice. While the bloc initially offered a cautious condemnation of Iran while calling for “maximum restraint” and “respect for international law,” France, Germany, and the United Kingdom appear to have opted for the opposite approach. In addition to strongly condemning the Iranian attacks, they have declared their intention to defend their interests in the region, up to and including “proportionate defensive actions” aimed at neutralizing Iranian weaponry “at its source.”
This apparent alignment with the White House was echoed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who stated that she was in favor of a “credible transition” in Iran following Khamenei's death, the first statement of its kind for the European executive.
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