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The European elections in Estonia could be the culmination of months of vulnerability for the Estonian government, and in particular for Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. She has risen to the top of European politics in terms of visibility. Her numerous appearances in the international media following the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine have given her an outsized presence compared to any previous Estonian prime minister. She was even dubbed Europe's Iron Lady by Newsweek for her tough stance against Vladimir Putin.
The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe offered Kallas to be their lead candidate, which would have pitted her against Ursula von der Leyen in the European election debates, but she declined, not wanting to be seen as someone who was about to leave Estonian politics.
Domestically, she enjoyed the same kind of success for a while. After a historic victory in the 2023 parliamentary elections, her Reform Party is set to govern for a full four-year term, as the possible coalition combinations in parliament rule out any alternative. The second largest party is the far-right EKRE, which most other parties do not consider an attractive partner for government. To the detriment of EKRE, Kallas' new liberal government legalised same-sex marriage.
Kallas husband’s Russian connections
The honeymoon period was soon over. Times are tough, however, and the foot-dragging of Kallas' government and its predecessors has not left Kallas in a good position. The budget deficit is massive and is expected to exceed 5% of Estonia's GDP next year. Kallas' government has raised taxes and will have to do much more to get the public finances in order. Her popularity was already on the wane when she was caught up in a scandal. Apparently, her husband still had business connections in Russia a year and a half after the full-scale invasion began. Since the story broke on 23 August, her possible departure has been the country's leading political story.
This does not mean that European issues are at the forefront of the campaign. The main issue is Europe's security and the war in Ukraine, but this has been the main issue in the country since 24 February 2022. Frankly, it is almost as if there is no separate European campaign in Estonia. The Social Democrats are also likely to win, thanks to the popularity of former diplomat and foreign minister Marina Kajurand. Isamaa (EPP), the Centre Party (Renew) and EKRE (I&D) will probably settle for one seat.
Whoever the seven Estonian MEPs are, Kaja Kallas will be in the spotlight on election night. If she does not want to go, her party may begin to rattle with calls for her ouster. Outgoing MEP and former Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip (also from the Reform Party) has been calling for this for months. Her luck in Estonian politics seems to have run out, but her standing among her European colleagues is strong. The combination of these two factors could pave the way for a great opportunity.
