Unprecedented in Hungary: European and local elections merge in a tumultuous political context

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Hungary's upcoming elections were already going to be interesting in many ways. For the first time since joining the EU two decades ago, Hungarians will hold European Parliament (EP) elections on the same day as local elections for mayors and local governments. In addition to Hungary's 21 MEPs, voters will elect the Mayor of Budapest, 3,177 mayors, some 16,500 local councillors, 432 county councils and 33 capital city councils. 

It is expected that around 33,800,000 ballot papers will be produced for the elections, including one EP ballot paper, 7,800 municipal ballot papers and 2,200 nationality ballot papers. The European elections have traditionally been seen as a major opportunity for the country's weak and fragmented opposition. Hungary's electoral rules, specifically designed to favour the incumbent Fidesz government, tend to force opposition parties from the left to the far right to campaign in coalition.

In the European elections, however, the proportional electoral system allows parties to compete separately and usually do better than in national elections, at least in terms of the proportion of seats they win. This is not necessarily because voters want to support the opposition or punish the government more. Hungary's national electoral system is now so skewed, with targeted and somewhat gerrymandered redistricting and winner payoffs, that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s populist and nationalist party Fidesz-KDNP, which wins around 50% of the national vote, can win two-thirds of all parliamentary seats and retain its majority. In the 2019 European elections, Fidesz secured 13 of Hungary's European Parliament mandates with 52% of the vote, while 8 went to opposition parties - not a resounding victory for the opposition, but better than they are used to.

When the Fidesz government announced that it would hold local elections at the same time as the European Parliament vote on 9 June, many viewed the decision with suspicion, speculating that it was yet another electoral tool to benefit the incumbent. This is not necessarily the case, and combining the two elections can potentially benefit, but also disadvantage, pro-government candidates. Voter turnout for the European Parliament, as well as for local elections, is generally low in Hungary, usually averaging around 30-35%. In 2019, the country saw one of the highest turnout rates for EU elections at 43.58%, which is still almost ten points below the European average.

Adding local elections to the mix could certainly spice things up. Urban voters tend to be more engaged in European Parliament elections, and Fidesz may hope that combining them with mayoral races could boost rural turnout.