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Since Geert Wilders won a major victory with his right-wing populist party PVV in the Dutch parliamentary elections in November, the eyes of Europe have been fixed on the Netherlands. Is his success a prelude to the European elections? Vice versa, the Dutch centrist parties observe the rest of Europe with worry: are the right-wing populists also going to prevail in other member states?
The potential likelihood of the PVV being part of the government has already claimed its first scalp in Brussels. In January, the Dutch member of the European Parliament, Malik Azmani, strongly tipped to be chair of the liberal group in the European Parliament, was forced to withdraw his candidacy for the influential role under pressure from French colleagues from Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche movement who have serious concerns about Azmani’s party’s negotiations with Geert Wilders’ PVV. ‘If there’s a risk that the situation in the Netherlands could cause division within the liberal group, I don’t feel comfortable in putting myself forward as a candidate’, was his explanation.
It is not very long ago that Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, triumphantly declared that the European Union was stronger than ever. In her annual State of the Union address in September, the German politician proudly highlighted what the European Commission had achieved since she took office in 2019: the emergence of a powerful ‘geopolitical’ Europe in the face of the Russian threat, the European Green Deal as the ‘heart of our economy’ and significant progress in the digital transition. Europe, argued Von der Leyen, was united in answering the ‘call of history’.
However, very little now remains of this sense of optimism. Support for Ukraine is starting to waver almost everywhere in Europe and the Green Deal, the European Commission’s centrepiece policy, has been significantly watered down in recent months.
June’s European elections are casting a long shadow. Opinion polls in most European countries suggest a shift to the right, much to the dismay of the established parties. In Slovakia, Robert Fico’s government is siding increasingly openly with the Hungarian firebrand Viktor Orbán, who for years has repeatedly shown himself to be capable of effectively holding Brussel’s decision-making to ransom. In Portugal, the Social Democrats were defeated in early March by the centre-right Democratic Alliance and the radical right-wing Chega achieved an unexpected victory.
In France, Emmanuel Macron is feeling the heat of Marine Le Pen breathing down his neck. In Germany, the ineffective Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces the rise of Alternative für Deutschland, already the country’s third most popular party according to the polls.
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