The slow authoritarian slide of Giorgia Meloni’s Italy

“In policy circles, many Europeans began to see Meloni as a model for how the far right might be tamed”, writes Italian political scientist Nathalie Tocci  in Foreign Affairs:

“As far-right parties gained traction in Austria, France, Germany, Romania, Spain, and beyond in recent years, more traditional leaders have questioned whether it is wise even to try to keep them out of government.” A lesson was apparently taken from Italy, where the centre-right formed a coalition government with the far right in 2022. “Centre-right parties in Belgium, Croatia, Finland, the Netherlands, and Sweden followed the Italian example.”

But, says Tocci, moderate Europeans were too quick to hold up Giorgia Meloni as a model: “Her adoption of a more centrist foreign policy did not show that tackling the complexities of government leads to moderation. It was the shield behind which she pursued more radical positions at home.” Indeed, ”it now seems clear that rather than arising from a change of heart, Meloni’s early pro-European manoeuvres were intended to neutralize criticism”.

Less than two years after her election, points out Tocci, Giorgia Meloni began to shift to the right on European issues:

“When Italy took over the G-7 presidency in January 2024, for instance, [Meloni] insisted on diluting or removing language supporting LGBTQ and abortion rights from the G-7 leaders’ final communiqué. Trump’s November 2024 election made the rightward shift easier. [In February], Meloni praised the US vice president JD Vance when he denounced the ‘weakness’ of Europe at the Munich Security Conference.”

The Italian PM's gradual shift is nowhere more evident than in her policy toward Ukraine, believes Tocci:

“Her 2022 support for Ukraine gained her the respect of her more moderate European peers as well as policymakers in the Biden administration. But once she secured that credibility, she began a distinctively incremental, non-confrontational pivot to the right. Since Trump’s return to office, when possible, she has avoided talking about Ukraine altogether.”

“This slow walk rightward may escape the notice of those accustomed to bombast from the far right”, adds Nathalie Tocci. “But it is a considered strategy: after taking each step, Meloni observes whether it has prompted pushback from her European peers and takes the next one only if circumstances allow.”

Before coming to power, Giorgia Meloni “had renounced leaving the EU and abandoning the euro, [both] positions she had initially supported”, writes Marc Lazar in Le Grand Continent. ”As head of government, she has undoubtedly shown a more constructive spirit out of pragmatism and in order to achieve specific political objectives.” For this professor emeritus of history and political sociology at Sciences Po, the Italian leader is a sui-generis case: “[I]n truth, Meloni's Europeanism is unique. It ultimately aims to regain more national sovereignty and rebuild European values based on the trilogy of God, family, and homeland, in response to the Islamic threat but also to 'wokism' and, in particular, 'gender theory', which she abhors – in short, everything she describes as the hegemony of the left, which she wants to break. This is why, during the European elections, she strongly supported the far-right Vox party in Spain – before it disappointed her by going on to join the European Patriots parliamentary group. Similarly, she recently sided with leaders of parties belonging to the European Conservatives and Reformists, in which Fratelli d'Italia is active: [namely] Romania's George Simion and Poland's Karol Nawrocki, whom she warmly congratulated after his election as president of Poland.”

In Marc Lazar's view, Giorgia Meloni is acting “in an attempt to reorient European politics“, with the support of Petr Fiala and Bart De Wever, the Czech and Belgian leaders respectively, whose parties belong to the ECR:

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”While her views are very similar to those of her close friend Viktor Orbán, she is not following him in his strategy of direct confrontation with Brussels. On the contrary, she is striving to rally the [conservative] European People's Party in order to isolate the Socialists, Greens, and [the Liberals of] Renew, and thus push through her agenda."

In terms of domestic policy, the Meloni government's authoritarian drift was recently confirmed with the adoption on 5 June of a highly controversial security decree, a text pushed by deputy prime minister and League leader Matteo Salvini. With tougher penalties for riots in prisons or migrant centres, increased protection for police officers accused of violence, and more, this decree is “truly emblematic of the law-and-order populism that drives the Meloni government“, writes Leonardo Bianchi in Valigia Blu. ”All political and social issues, especially those at the centre of media attention, must necessarily be resolved through repression, and therefore through prison."

A strategic pragmatist, affable and moderate in Europe, but inside Italy an iron-fisted leader who unflinchingly pushes ultra-conservative policies: Giorgia Meloni has not escaped the scrutiny of international organizations and civil-liberties groups. Last April, five UN rapporteurs expressed “deep concern” about the security decree. As Leonardo Bianchi points out, they described it as “alarming” and “inconsistent” with international human-rights obligations, including “the protection of the right to freedom of movement, privacy, due process and liberty, as well as protection against arbitrary detention”.

In Il Manifesto, Eleonora Martini reviews the findings of the Rule of Law Report 2025, produced by the Civil Liberties Union for Europe. The report labels Italy a “dismantler” of the rule of law, whose government “systematically and intentionally undermines the rule of law in almost every aspect.”

Martini points in particular to the “significant deterioration” described by the report in areas such as justice and press freedom. The press in particular is “under increasing pressure, with unprecedented attacks and violations, often initiated by civil servants and members of the governing coalition.” Also flagged up is the erosion of public debate, fueled by a criminalization of activists and minorities, and used as a deterrent to silence dissent.

Not that such policies have dampened Giorgia Meloni's appeal to Italians: according to the latest Ipsos poll, her approval rating stands at 42%, while her party remains in first place in terms of voting intentions, with 27.3%.