Better to get it wrong than do nothing

Britain and France can be criticsied for having quick military solutions at the ready if armed conflicts break out somewhere. But, to their credit, they’re always ready to take a decision if they can no longer stand by and watch while war crimes unfold, such as in Syria. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, on the other hand, admonishes, warns, and frets incessantly about doing any such thing.

However, as different as the positions in Europe are over whether to arm the Syrian rebels, they are edging closer in another matter: Europe no longer stands so clearly on the side of the insurgents as it did at the start. European foreign ministers are facing two key points in the Syria conflict: the direct interference of the Lebanese Hezbollah in the conflict, which could turn the civil war into a conflagration; and the increasing dominance of Islamist and jihadist groups on the side of the rebels.

The West is getting increasingly unnerved by the thought that the fighters with the black flags and long beards could take over the government if the Assad regime falls. Doubts are growing that the groups currently leading Syria's resistance are actually planning to bring in anything that respects democracy and minority rights.

Staying out of the fight

The push for an International Conference on Syria suddenly becomes clear. From the outset, the strategy of the West in Syria was to stay out of the fight. As it looked certain that Assad's days were numbered anyway, that seemed reasonable at the time. In the meanwhile, though, the Europeans, like the Americans, have grasped that Assad does still have supporters: the Alawites, the religious group to whom he belongs; the Christian minority, which does not trust the Sunnis; and the supporters and beneficiaries of the system and the ruling Baath party. In all, about a third of the population supports the regime.

Keeping out of the conflict is, all the same, not an option for the Europeans. Their restraint has so far been exploited only by the Assad regime. To believe that one cannot be guilty of doing nothing is an illusion. For the deaths of more than 70,000 people over the past two years, the Syrians also have the West to blame.

Diplomacy

Betting on a peace conference

"Let's give the Geneva Conference a real chance," pleads Swedish daily Sydsvenskan, arguing that "the idea of a Syrian peace conference is clearly more attractive than supplying weapons" to the Syrian rebels.

The paper notes that:

the war in Syria has already caused more than 80,000 deaths, according to the United Nations. The refugees can be counted by the millions. Nothing indicates that the conflict will result in fewer victims in the future if more weapons are added to the mix. [...] No one can ensure that advanced weapons systems will not wind up in the hands of Al-Qaida-linked jihadi fighters. Or any other group with bad intentions. There are plenty of these to choose from in and around Syria. United States Secretary of State, John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov are banking on a peace conference in June, in Geneva. The Syrian regime has said it is ready, "in principle" to participate. This is not an ideal situation. But supporting the conference is worth the effort. It is time to place all bets on diplomacy and a political solution.