Bulgaria after the EU elections: less green, more nationalist

2024 will be a crucial year. Elections are to be held in more than 50 countries around the world, some of them in Europe (Portugal was in March, Austria in the autumn). There will also be elections to the European Parliament, which will determine the future of major political initiatives.

The two most powerful positions in the bloc – the presidency of the European Commission and the Council of the EU [which represents the member states] – will be filled during the Hungarian presidency under the leadership of Eurosceptic Viktor Orbán.

The EU's top diplomat will represent us to the world in some of the most turbulent times the Union can remember, and is an attractive job for an increasing number of Eastern European politicians (although the European People's Party is already trying to limit its functions or replace it with a Commissioner's role). Changes are expected both in the number of seats in the European Parliament (+15) and in its composition.

2024 will be a crucial year for Bulgaria and the EU, both domestically and internationally. The end of the "green transformation" mandate will make way for new issues on the agenda – namely social and economic stability and the rule of law.

The success of the European Union will depend on its ability to unite and work towards effective reforms. A task that seems almost impossible against the backdrop of the growing presence of extreme nationalists in Brussels.

After the recent political upheavals, Bulgaria's role also seems uncertain. And according to Davide Ferrari, Head of Research and Partner at the Brussels-based analytical think tank EU Matrix, the change in the Bulgarian delegation in the European Parliament will be significant.

According to their research, [the ruling] GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria, liberal-conservative) party, will have five seats, four for We Continue the Change and four for Democratic Bulgaria (both pro-European liberal) if they run in a coalition. If they decide to run separately, they are likely to have one seat less. There will be three seats for Vazrazhdane (right-wing nationalist) and three for the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (social-liberal). Only two for the Socialists. And there will certainly be many new faces.